A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll suggests most Americans are unconvinced that President Donald Trump will negotiate a stronger agreement with Iran than the nuclear deal reached under former President Barack Obama in 2015.

Only 23% of respondents said they expect Trump to produce a better deal, while 37% predicted the eventual agreement would be worse. Another 12% believed the two deals would be about the same, with the remainder expressing no opinion.

The results come as Trump seeks to build public support for his handling of the Iran conflict. CNN reported that he has invoked Obama’s nuclear agreement more than three dozen times since the war began, frequently arguing that his administration would deliver a superior outcome.

Support concentrated among Trump’s base

Republicans were more optimistic than the public overall, but only 54% said Trump would secure a better accord. Confidence was highest among MAGA-aligned Republicans, 70% of whom expected an improved deal.

Non-MAGA Republicans were divided: 27% expected Trump to negotiate a better agreement, while 23% preferred the likely outcome of Obama’s deal. Among independents, just 13% believed Trump would obtain better terms.

The poll also points to broader public unease about the conflict. Sixty-eight percent said the Iran war was not worth fighting, and Trump’s disapproval rating on Iran reached 69% as the midterm elections draw closer.

Obama-era agreement remains the benchmark

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action limited Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement during his first term and has repeatedly described it as a major foreign-policy failure.

Despite that criticism, the new findings indicate that many Americans remain skeptical of Trump’s alternative. Previous polling cited by CNN also found that roughly two-thirds of the public doubted the war would significantly reduce Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Source: CNN analysis by Aaron Blake, based on a Washington Post-Ipsos poll. This article is an independently written summary.